Monday, February 29, 2016

World Top 10 January 2016

Next #1 in EV-land?


Models - Nissan Leaf back to #1

The global EV market continues to grow at rapid pace, with the 35.000 units delivered in January representing over 40% growth YoY, if sales continue to grow at this rate, we will reach nearly 800.000 units by December 31st, but...

...The Chinese and US EV market worst sales months are January and February, and Europe is still in hangover-mode from the the sales rush of last December, so my guess is that in March the growth rate will increase even more, meaning that we might be heading for the symbolic One Million EV's Landmark in 2016...

Yep, one million units in one year, now THAT would be something to remembre. 

In the meantime, let's look at what we have got, in January: The Nissan Leaf is back at the leadership, something that wouldn't be much of a surprise, if in the previous month it hadn't been Fifth...

In Second we have the BYD Tang, the best position ever achieved by a Chinese model, and that's with it's home market still in Chinese-New-Year-Mode, now imagine how high will get once China gets up and running in March... 

Below these two, there are two usual suspects, with the Tesla Model S and Outlander PHEV getting ready to resume the race for #3, in the second half of this Top 10, there are na additional three models coming from China, substanting the record 35% share that Chinese carmakers currently have in the EV market.

PlWORLDJan. YTD%'15Pl
1Nissan Leaf4.448 4.448132
2BYD Tang4.0124.012118
3Tesla Model S2.1162.11661
4
5
6
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
BAIC E-Series EV
Renault Zoe
1.967
1.646
1.452
1.967
1.646
1.452
6
5
4
3
11
7
7JAC i EV1.4271.427416
8SAIC Roewe 550 PHEV1.1531.153315
9Chevrolet Volt1.0901.09039
10BMW i31.0851.08535

TOTAL 35.521
35.521



Manufacturers -  BYD #1

BYD started the year as it ended 2015, leading the EV charge, followed by a 30 kWh reignited Nissan, with Tesla and Mitsubishi continuing the race for the Bronze Medal. 

In the low end of the manufacturers ranking, the big news are the Top 10 positions of the chinese BAIC and JAC, pushing down Chevrolet and Ford.


PlWORLDJan.YTD%'15Pl
1BYD5.4715.471151
2Nissan4.6764.676134
3Tesla2.4862.48672
4Mitsubishi2.4462.44673
5
6
7
Volkswagen
BMW
Renault 
2.057
2.039
1.980
2.057
2.039
1.980
6
6
6
5
6
8
8Zotye1.6781.67859
9BAIC1.6461.646512
10JAC1.427 1.427417






Sunday, February 28, 2016

Japan January 2016 (Updated)



Second Life Edition


The Japanese EV market started the year on good note, with sales up 45% regarding January 2015, with the 3.500 units representing the best month since September '14, placing the EV Share at 0.93%, will this mean that the Japanese EV market is back on track?



The 30kWh version of the Nissan Leaf arrived in a big way and propelled Nissan's hatch to near record levels, with 2.503 units (Record was 2.593 units, made in Feb. '11), leaving behind the Outlander PHEV by a wide margin, Mitsu's SUV recorded 801 units, dropping 3% YoY.




Pl
Japan
January
  2016
     %Pl '15
1Nissan Leaf2.5032.50370
2
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV80180122
1
3BMW i3 e)1001003
4
4Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia e)50501
7
5Toyota Prius Plug-In46461
3
6
7
8
9
10
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Tesla Model S e)
Mitsubishi Minicab Miev
Mit. Minicab Miev Truck
BMW i8 e)
31
25
23
6
5
31
25
23
6
5
1
1
1
0
0
5
6
8
9
10

TOTAL3.5903.590100

e) Estimate




Source:http://evn.blog.eonet.jp; insideevs.com

Friday, February 26, 2016

Portugal January 2016

Portuguese companies found a new love


Mitsu Outlander PHEV Excels Edition

EV Sales had a great start in Portugal, with 114 registrations, a 256% increase YoY, placing the EV Share above 0.8%, a new all-time record, with the bulk of this growth coming from Plug-In Hybrids, with this technology reaching 68% share, being the first time PHEV's surpassed BEV's in this market.

This shift in buyers tastes is visible in the models ranking, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV started the year in #1, with 37 units, more than double than the sales of the runner-up, the Mercedes C350e, which, by the way, is another Plug-in hybrid...

The first all-electric vehicle comes in Third, with the Nissan Leaf registering 14 units, a somewhat disappointing result that might be explained by Nissan preferring to deliver the 30kWh version in larger markets.

Outside the podium, we have the BMW i3, with 12 units, all being of the BEV variety, followed by two Volvo's, the V60 Plug-In and the XC90 T8, with the swedish brand beating its volume record this month.

In the manufacturers ranking, Mitsubishi (32% Share) started the year in the leadership, followed by Mercedes (17%), this being the highest place for the german brand in the world, with Nissan and Volvo in Third (12%).


Pl
Portugal
January
2016
%
Pl '15
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 373732
1
2Mercedes C350e   e)151513
5
3
4
Nissan Leaf
BMW i3 *
14
12
14
12
12
11
2
3
5
6
7
7
9
10
11
12
13
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Volvo XC90 T8
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Tesla Model S    e)
Mercedes B250e
Mercedes S500e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Toyota Prius Plug-In
BMW i8
8
6
5
5
2
2
2
2
1
8
6
5
5
2
2
2
2
1
7
5
4
4
2
2
2
1
1
9
28
11
16
15
20
18
8
20 
13
13
16
Peugeot iOn
Renault Zoe
Volkswagen e-Golf
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
4
16

TOTAL114114100

Source: ACAP

*`- 12 BEV



EV Distribution - Portugal January 2016

Last May, i made a small study regarding the distribution of EV's in my home country, based on used car websites and other sources, now i have updated it, remember this should only be seen as an indication of how electric vehicles are distributed across the portuguese territory.

For the information to be easier to understand for people not familiar with the local geography, i have divided the country in seven areas: Northwest (Porto, Aveiro, Braga and Viana do Castelo  districts), Northeast (Bragança, Vila Real, Guarda and Viseu), Center (Coimbra, Castelo Branco, Leiria and Santarém), Lisbon Metropolitan Area (Lisbon and Setubal), South (Portalegre, Evora, Beja and Faro), Azores and Madeira Islands.


 Let's look at the distribution of the sample EV's:


Northwest

Following Lisbon Metropolitan area, this is the second area with most EV's, the Nissan Leaf is by far the most popular model, with 9 units, followed by the I-Miev triplets and Renault Zoe, with 4 units, and a big number of models with 3 units, half of them being of the PHEV variety, like the Volvo V60 Plug-In.











Northeast

Known for having the harshest conditions for EV's in mainland Portugal, with snow falling cold winters, 30ºC-something  summers and lots of big mountains to cross, it would be expected that PHEV's and especially the Outlander PHEV would be popular here, that's not the case, the most common EV is the Nissan Leaf, with 3 units, followed by the Renault Twizy(!), with two units and one Citroen C-Zero.








Center


There isn't a model of preference in this transitional North-South area, with several models collecting 3 units: Nissan Leaf, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Tesla Model S and Renault Zoe.



 
 
 
 
Lisbon Metropolitan Area


Lisbon is not only the nation's capital, but also the only place where with no effort you find EV's around the corner, with 40% of the total fleet of EV's being found in this small area. The most common EV is the Nissan Leaf, with 11 units, followed by the Renault Twizy and BMW i3, with 5 units. Lisbon also has the most heterogeneous offer, with 16 models represented, including an imported Think City.










South


In this area most ost EV's are concentrated in the tourist-friendly Algarve, with two Leafs and a number of models in single numbers, like the Renault Zoe, Twizy, Tesla Model S, or the Outlander PHEV.

But the scorching-hot (We are talking of 40ºC-something summers) Beja district also registers two EV's, one Nissan Leaf and a Mitsubishi I-Miev, so the most common EV in the South is the Nissan Leaf, with three units.

Azores and Madeira Islands
There is little info on these markets, there seems to be little reception to EV's, which is a shame, as mild climates and shorter distances are good conditions for plug-ins. Anyway, the most common EV here is the Renault Twizy, with 3 units (2 in Madeira, 1 in Azores), with a BMW i3 founding the way to the Azores (São Miguel Island, to be more precise).


Conclusions

If the Nissan Leaf might be considered a success story across mainland Portugal, there are a couple other cases worthy of mention, unlike what one might think, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is more popular in the southern areas, where ice and snow are not a problem, Teslas are starting to be scattered across the country, but the reality is that small difusion EV's tend to be concentrated in Lisbon and in the NW (Braga-Porto-Aveiro) industrial belt.
 

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Europe January 2016 (2nd Update)



Zoe's Coming Of Age Edition

Still without Austria and Portugal numbers, but with the updated France data, the European market had more than 11.000 registrations in January, a modest 4% increase over January 2015, something that can be explained by the hangover of the year end sales rush in countries like Netherlands, Sweden or Denmark, as the year progresses it is expected that the growth rate returns firmly to double digits.

Looking at the models ranking, we can see that the two Best Selling Plug-in Hybrids of 2015, Outlander PHEV and Golf GTE, saw their sales drop almost by half YoY, derived from the falling of the Dutch and Swedish markets, while the Renault Zoe (Fifth consecutive month in four digits, best sequence to date) managed to start the year in the leadership, a first for the finally-fulfilling-expectations French Hatch, now the question begs, will it stay there for long?

The Outlander PHEV dropped to #2, followed by the Nissan Leaf, in Third, and the VW e-Golf(!) in Fourth, it was the first time in 10 months that the 100% electric version of the Golf managed to outsell its Plug-in Hybrid twin. 

Other points of interest in the ranking are the inclusion in the Top 10 of the Volvo XC90 and BMW X5 PHEV versions, both trailing the Porsche Cayenne Plug-In (#13) in the hot Luxury SUV niche, and also the fact that the jurassic Peugeot iOn outsold the VW e-Up! as best selling City Car, being the first time since 2012(!) that one of the I-Miev triplets is ahead of this particular segment.

Looking at the brands ranking, the trophy bearer, Volkswagen, is the leader, with 15% share, but Renault is only 12 units behind, while the Third placed BMW isn't that far off, with 13% share.

PlEuropeJan.2016%'15Pl
1Renault Zoe1.4451.445132
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1.1261.126101
3Nissan Leaf98198195
4Volkswagen e-Golf72872868
5BMW i372472466
6Tesla Model S69169164
7Volvo XC90 T8 675675618
8Volkswagen Golf GTE59459453
9
10
Audi A3 e-Tron
BMW X5 40e
549
499
549
499
5
4
7
22
11Mercedes C350e316316311
12Volvo V60 Plug-In30830839
13Porsche Cayenne Plug-In283283314
14Peugeot iOn229229223
15
16
16
18
19
20
Volkswagen e-Up!
Renault Kangoo ZE
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Mercedes B250e
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Kia Soul EV
212
209
209
206
178
171
212
209
209
206
178
171
2
2
2
2
2
2
16
13
12
17
    15
10

TOTAL11.25511.255

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Belgium January 2016

The Two New Heavyweight Champions in Belgium?

Sweet As Chocolate (On Snowy Days)

A dazzling new record of 743 EV's was set in Belgium last January, up 55% above the previous record of 479 units set in June '15 and 139% above the result of twelve months ago, with the 2016 EV Share starting at an astounding 1.68%, this is the first time the market share is above 1% and also the first time Belgium sold more EV's than Netherlands...


This Sweet as Belgian Chocolate start had the help of a new purchase subsidy in the Flanders region, that started on January 1st, with the majority of models benefiting from the favorable season, but there was one particular type of vehicle to excel last month: The Luxury SUV.

As snow visited Belgium in January, we had a 100% SUV podium, with the Volvo XC90 T8 beating the all-time sales record for a single model, with 203 units, in only its third month on the market, followed at a distance by another newcomer, the BMW X5 40e registered 108 units, while last year runner-up, the Porsche Cayenne Plug-In, started this year race in Third Place, with 93 units.

Looking at the rest of the ranking, the Tesla Model S and BMW i3 were tied in Fourth, with 47 units, while in #7 we have another Luxury SUV surpassing expectations, with the GLE500e selling 24 units (pb) and becoming the best selling Mercedes in the ranking.

Good result also for the veteran Citröen C-Zero, registering 8 units in January, exactly the same amount of units it had during the whole year of 2015...

On the other hand, two models under-performed in a significant way: The Volvo V60 Plug-In registered only 6 units, when a year ago it had 26, while the VW Golf GTE also only sold 6 units, far from the regular two digits sales of last year. 

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo started 2016 in the lead (28%), followed by BMW (24%), and Porsche in Third, with 14%.

As curiosity, there was one Toyota Mirai registered last month. The Belgian roads will never be the same...

PlBelgiumJan.YTD%'15Pl
1Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV2032032713
2BMW X5 40e PHEV1081081515
3
4
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Tesla Model S
93
47
93
47
13
6
2
1
4BMW i3 *474763
6Nissan Leaf313148
7Mercedes GLE500e2424327
8Mercedes C350e2323316
9Mercedes B250e1919311
9BMW i8191939
11Audi A3 e-Tron161627
11Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV161626
11
14
15
16
16
18
19
Renault Zoe
Renault Kangoo ZE e)
Renault Twizy
Citröen C-Zero
Mercedes S500e
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Volvo V60 Plug-In 
16
15
9
8
8
7
6
16
15
9
8
8
7
6
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
18
N/A
12
24
14
10
4
19
21
21
23
24
24
24
24
28
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Peugeot iOn
Smart Fortwo ED
Kia Soul EV
Peugeot Partner EV
Volkswagen e-Golf
Volkswagen e-Up!
Volkswagen Passat GTE
6
5
5
3
2
2
2
2
1
6
5
5
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
21
20
19
23
N/A
17
21
33

TOTAL743743100



Source: febiac.be


* - 9 Bev + 38 Rex





Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids


PlModel    2016
1Toyota Auris Hybrid334
2Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV203
3Toyota Yaris Hybrid176
4BMW X5 40 PHEV108
5Porsche Cayenne Plug-In93

  

If we combine regular hybrid sales with plug-ins, it is visible the progression of plug-in hybrids regarding regular ones, with only the Toyota Auris Hybrid staying out of reach (For how long?) of the Plug-In SUV Armada. The Yaris Hybrid dropped to Third, while Lexus hybrid SUV's simply just disappeared from the ranking. 

Will we see Plug-in Hybrids outsell regular hybrids this year?

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

China Top 10 - January 2016

BYD's Bad Boy: The Tang getting ready to race Cayenne's and BMW X6's

 BYD Tang #1 by a long shot

Still with incomplete data, we have already 13.792 EV's sold last January in China, an awesome 144% increase over January 2015, these early signs show that the plug-in market will continue to grow at a rapid pace, considering that January and February are the slowest selling months in China for EV's, i'm already wondering if the forecast made a few weeks ago (400.000 units) was not ambitious enough... 


Looking at the models individually, the Tang SUV has already left the competition eating its dust, delivering three times more units than the #2 BAIC E-Series, which, by the way, increased its sales YoY by a factor of nine(!).

Other model to increase sales exponentially, was the JAC i EV, selling 1.427 units, when a year ago it had delivered 200 units...

In fact, only three models didn't experienced a surge in sales, the #7 BYD e6 was up only 40%, while the #9 Chery eQ sales increased an iffy 10%, with the only model losing pace, the BYD Qin, is more a victim of BYD's success than lack of demand, as the chinese company is prioritizing the fat profits of the Tang SUV, over the production of other models. 


PlModelJan. Sales  
1BYD Tang4.012
2BAIC E-Series EV1.646
3JAC i EV1.427
4SAIC Roewe 550 PHEV1.153
5
6
7
8
9
10
JMC E100
Zotye Cloud EV
BYD e6
Zotye Zhima E30
BYD Qin
Chery eQ
1.009
814
686
610
517
390


Source: http://www.chooseauto.com.cn/xlph/


Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Batteries December 2015




BYD Reaches #2 

No surprises in the leadership, Panasonic is high above thanks to the continued success of battery-hungry Tesla, with VAG plug-ins compensating for the Toyota sales drop, here it's business as usual for Panasonic;

BYD is on a never-ending growth trend, being the only manufacturer to significantly improve share (14% now vs 6% last year) in the ranking, all while tripling production YoY

LG Chem has stopped the bleeding, with the Volt II ramping up production and the New Gen batteries coming later in the year, it seems the future is once again bright for the South Korean manufacturer, but the question now is: "Will a reinvigorated LG be able to remove BYD from the Second Spot?";

AESC, the joint venture between NEC and Nissan, continues to lose share (Down 12%(!) YoY), with the Leaf sales losing steam and with Nissan outsourcing batteries to LG in the future, the future is bleak for the Joint Venture;

 - In a fast growing market, Lithium Energy Japan (GS Yuasa / Mitsubishi) sales have risen on a modest rate, hampered by the small battery volume each Outlander PHEV has;

Samsung has a partnership with BMW and FIAT, and with both auto manufacturers plug-in sales improving, Samsung has beaten last year result by a large margin, albeit it wasn't enough to win market share. 

Epower is the first of a series of small chinese battery makers at the bottom of the ranking, with BPP in #8, Air Lithium (Kandi provider) in #9 and Wanxiang in #10, an interesting fact is that all of them have increased share regarding last year.


China is Rising...

PlBattery Makers
     2015 MWh
       2014
MWh
  %'15

% '14
1Panasonic4.5522.72638
38
2
3
BYD
LG Chem
1.652
1.432
461
886
14
12
6
12
4
5
AESC
Mitsubishi/GS Yuasa
1.272
600
1.620
451
11
5
23
6
6Samsung5043144
4
7Epower489N/A4
N/A
8
9
10
Beijing Pride Power (BPP)
Air Lithium (Lyoyang)
Wanxiang
397
283
268
121
N/A
N/A
3
2
2
2
N/A
N/A

TOTAL12.2897.167